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Initial Winner (by sales after first 2-3 years): Xbox 360
Eventual Winner (by sales at end of gen): PS3
Profit Winner: Revolution
The PS3 will eventually outsell the other two consoles I think, although by a much smaller margin than in this gen. The sales will be generated simply by hype and misinformation. People will buy it just because it's "Playstation", without taking ten seconds to do some research. Why? Because people are idiots...
Regardless of how many idiots blindly flock to their trojan horse of a grill, Sony is going to be the big loser next round. Because it's so impossibly hard to develop on the Cell, there won't be enough games to make up the ENORMOUS loss Sony is going to take on selling the PS3 (between $100-$300 per console). While fanboys may bicker over sales figures and market penetration, in the end these companies are businesses and profit is what matters. Nintendo won that war this time around, and their about to do it again: on an even larger scale.
In the end, the entire war is going to boil down to which system do developers turn to. I think the answer is there will be good mix between the Revolution and 360 (although the Rev gets the N-franchises, so it's a bit better off), and the PS3 will only get a few big-name titles. How many systems those 2 or 3 big titles will move I can't guess, although I'm sure there's a few thousand idiots at least who'll buy a PS3 just for Metal Gear Solid 4 (Stealth Old People Action!). Still, I don't think that'll be enough to save Sony in the long run...
The Revolution is going to win on two fronts: fun and profit
The Xbox 360 won't win anything, but will be profitable.
The PS3 will win in sales but lose in EVERYTHING else.
This is certainly, if nothing else, the beginning of the fall of the PS generation...
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