360 long run loser?

[bignds]

Xbox 360 will be a loser for Microsoft

Plucky Nintendo in shock comeback


By Simon Burns in Taiwan: Tuesday 21 March 2006, 19:04

THE XBOX 360 will lose Microsoft a big chunk of its games console market share, with Nintendo standing to benefit, new research predicts.
The Xbox 360 is expected to hold only 28 per cent of the market by 2010, down from the 34 percent share of the original Xbox.

Meanwhile Nintendo will increase its slice of the market from 15 to 21 per cent, with its upcoming Revolution console. Sony will leave its current troubles behind it to remain unchanged, with the new PlayStation 3 holding about 50 per cent of the market, just as the old PS2 does now.

The predictions for the next generation consoles come from In-Stat research announced yesterday, and the estimates of the older machines' market share are from Gartner data released last November, just prior to the launch of the Xbox 360.

If they turn out to be accurate, the predictions are depressingly bad news for Microsoft. The company has spent hundreds of millions promoting and developing the Xbox series over the past five years. And, after the tremendous success of the first model, the software giant would surely hope to put more of a dent in the armour of the PlayStation 3. Microsoft looks to games sales, not console sales, to recoup its investment, but a smaller market share will tend to reduce the variety and total number of games sold.

These kind of market figures would be very good news for Nintendo, however. A relative midget alongside the Sony and Microsoft behemoths, Nintendo was written off for dead in most quarters after the GameCube missed the mainstream. And good news for Sony, of course, which has been severely embarrassed by the oft-delayed launch of the PS3.

Just of interest, is all.

[ShadowMarth]

Hmm. That Rev hunter's article got me thinking a little actually. If even one of the Rev first party games "flops", then it'll be in trouble with the gaming public. However if Retro nails MP3 with an amazing new game, Mario 128 is another Mario 64 (or even a Mario Sunshine that looks more... normal. It was an underrated game), and SSBR shines through as the kickass game it better be, then Nintendo will be in a perfect position to take this gen. At that point all that will matter is third party.

[bignds]

Nintendo wont 'take this gen', there just arnt enough hardcore gamers to do that, i can see themselves taking some sales of microsoft. At the end of the day its the PS3 brand, its the name that comes with it, why people will buy it, not games, as sad as it sounds. Yes, shadowmarth, 3rd party will play a big role, as it did last gen, i think that article is pretty right in terms of what im thinking, but im seeing it as more 45ish PS3, 27 revo and about 25 360.
In terms of money loss, it may seem obvious from the get go that sony will lose the most but after a few things that piece has pointed out along with some other things, it seems microsoft will make a considerable loss. Nintendo will be winners in term of profit. Market share, im not too sure.

[ShadowMarth]

I don't know, Sony just seems to be screwing themselves this gen. Lies about release dates, lies about pricing, and still no solid release dates. Sure, the same can be said of the Rev about the release dates, but we can trust Nintendo with the first party. They've had a lot more time to prepare than with the DS. This time it'll be the PS3 riding on its name against the Rev's games. And at the likely price, the name might not be enough in the face of the Rev's cheapness and coolness.

[bignds]

The PS3 will be repeat performance of the ps2 on a slightly smaller scale, Sonys marketting hype machine will get the mainstream intact, along with the few glossy games theyll pump out, the 360 is proof graphics alone and some glossy games will get you through launch, and that isnt even without the popular PS franchises, i.e ridge racer, tekken, gran turismo and the like, gran turismo is big pulling point for a crap load of people and if sony come forward with some footage of that in action at E3, looking how good many can imagine on the PS3, then mainstream market will be swung over regardless of price.

Hey im not saying Nintendo wont be successful nor make an improvement, they will, but baby steps my friend, baby steps and anyway, we're to discuss the 360s losses, so lets stay on track with that.

[ShadowMarth]

Well apply this to the PSP. People thought that the brand name would carry it to victory. People thought this would guarantee developers and support. People were dead wrong. The PSP is losing quite badly to the DS. It survives on UMDs and other functionality, but it is losing. The Xbox is not doing well simply because it's got pretty graphics. It's winning because it's the first of the next gen, and has a good jump. It's also winning because of Live, and the far-off promise of Halo 3. Also, it's losing horribly in japan, which is funny considering it has no modern competition.

[Neumie]

in japan 360 will be another failure for microsoft (unless they really pull something out of the bag). overall 360 will do bettewr though i think. Sony did the same crap with the PS2 launch but it was still a great success because it had no competition (the dreamcast can hardly be called competition since sega made an absolute mess of it. great console mind, badly supported). this time there is serious competition from a company bigger than sony. there is a viable alternative to the PS3. demand in europe and america is massive and i think microsoft are going to take a big chunk out of sonys market share in those areas. the bad press isnt exactly helping sony either.
of course PS3 wont be a disaster in america or europe. it will sell very well at launch regardless of price. but demand may take a downturn a few months after.
where does that leave revo? well from a business prospective its great for ninty. every unit they will sell will make a profit. its cheaper than the competition. its small, and looks attractive. i see the revo as a compliment to the PS3 or the 360 (and so does microsoft it seams :P).
Sony have a 70% market share last time i checked (that was a while ago). like nintendos handheld share, there is only one way that number is going.....down.
my projection for market share in 2010 (based on the scientific method of a guess :P) is:
Sony: 40%
Microsoft: 35%
Nintendo: 25%
However sales for all machines in the next gen will be bigger due to a bigger overall market.

[bignds]

Neumies got it right, i agree with his 'guess' on market share.

[Yoshi]

Xbox 360 is suking...surprisingly only a few people have them where i live