The Fall of the Playstation Generation

[theONE]

heres is an editorial written by Ninty Freak at DS Update. read it if you havent before becasue it is very good...

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The Fall of the Playstation Generation

Disclaimer: This is an editorial, don't take it as fact. This also does not represent the opinion of the entire site.

Much has changed since 1995 when one said 'gaming' and the word 'Nintendo immediately came to mind. Nintendo fell from the throne a year later in 1996 and has since been struggling to regain their former glory. But when Nintendo fell, a new gaming giant took their place at the head of the industry: Sony. Since the creation of the Playstation in the early 1990's, Sony has led the industry in third-party support, number of games, and market-share. Currently, Sony's Playstation 2 owns approximately 80% of the market. However, a new age of gaming now appears on the horizon and all three gaming giants (Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft) are poised to try to claim the majority of the market as their own. This new generation brings a new situation for each company and a turning of the tides may be at hand. Sony, the head of the gaming industry has made some crucial errors that may cost it its market-share and its success. However, in order to understand why this may occur, one must first examine the history of video-games before they understand the position that Sony has put themselves into.

The History of Gaming

Gaming has come a long way since it began with the Atari consoles back in the 80's. Atari made the first home consoles and they were a success. However, soon every brand from Pepsi to Quaker Oats tried to make games on their consoles and games were reduced in fun, challenge, and quality. As more and more companies tried to jump onto the Atari bandwagon, more and more fans of the consoles turned away from the industry. Soon, the entire gaming industry collapsed and the market died.

In 1985, a toy manufacturing company known as Nintendo that had also created the Game n Watch portable video games decided to try its hand at creating arcade titles. Much of their success in the arcade world was thanks to one man: A man known as Shigeru Miyamato. Shigeru created titles such as Donkey Kong and Super Mario Bros for the arcade and it soon it became quite evident that the company had a knack for creating video games. They soon attempted to revive the home console industry with the release of the Nintendo Entertainment System (Also known as NES and Famicon). The NES brought innovative, simple, fun titles to the industry that people could play in the comfort of their homes. For its time, the graphics on the system were amazing and development was relatively easy. Key franchises that have kept the company going such as Super Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and F-Zero were born on this console. Nintendo's only competitor was Sega, a mid-sized company that also created home console games. Ultimately, however, Nintendo conquered.

In 1989, Nintendo released their new console, the Super Nintendo (also known as SNES and Super Famicon). The SNES improved upon everything that the NES did bringing about a new age of gaming. The console was capable of more realistic graphics, many more colors, faster processing speed, and even primitive 3D games. Sega's console, the Sega Genesis, could not keep up. Nintendo was at its golden age around here.

However, a new threat emerged: Sega was attempting to create an attatchment for their console that would allow it to use CD-ROMs for games in favor of traditional cartridges. CDs had several advantages and Nintendo knew it. Nintendo soon joined forces with electronics giant Sony to create an add-on for the SNES that would allow it to also use CDs. The device was to be named the 'Playstation'. However, the Sega-CD soon failed due to high prices for at the time, CDs were highly uneconomical and quite expensive. Nintendo canceled the the project with Sony who was left with some unfinished blueprints.

In the early 90's, Sony put the pieces together and released a powerful console similar to the SNES called the Playstation (PSX). Meanwhile, Nintendo released the Nintendo64 (N64), a powerful machine with a 64-bit processor and much more powerful 3D capabilities. Though the N64 was a machine far superior to the PSX in most technical aspects, the N64 was extremely hard to develop games for and Nintendo charged enormous royalty and licensing fees. Meanwhile, the PSX charged little and was similar in programming aspects to the SNES. Therefore, developers could easily develop high-quality games for a fraction of N64 costs without having to learn all new programming methods---They were already experienced programming on the SNES. Beginning with SquareSoft, the makers of the Final Fantasy series, 3rd-party companies jumped the boat and fled from Nintendo to Sony. Soon, Nintendo was left with virtually no 3rd-party support and most games that came out on the system were 1st- or 2nd-party games. Nevertheless, Nintendo created some fantastic games for the console such as Zelda: Ocarina of Time (still regarded by many as the greatest game ever made) and Mario 64. Ultimately, however, the people wanted a varied choice of games and Playstation, which now had the majority of the 3rd-party support, offered a far more extensive library of games than the N64. Finally, Nintendo lost their first console war.

It should be noted that the only way that Nintendo was able to pull through the generation was by falling back on the classic franchises created by Shigeru Miyamato. Thanks to these games, though, Nintendo pulled through and was able to continue the ongoing fight for control of the gaming industry.

A new age dawned as the industry grew and software giant Microsoft looked to get into the heated gaming market. However, Sega was still not out. After the failure of the Sega Saturn, which lasted until 1999, Sega was ready to put up one final fight. In 2000, the Dreamcast was released, an advanced console far superior to any other on the market in that day. The Dreamcast boomed for a time until in 2001, Sony released their next console: The Playstation 2. This powerhouse far outdid anything that the Dreamcast could pump out. However, the ultimate reason for Sega's demise was the DVD. Sega's main market had been in Japan, a country where DVD Players often cost over $500. When the Playstation 2 was released with the ability to read DVDs for a price of only $300, Japan scrambled for it. Whether they played games or not, people bought the console for just the DVD player. With everybody buying the PS2, Sega was soon drowned out to the point where there were no more orders from stores for the Dreamcast. They eventually faced the fact that they had to give up hardware development and became a third-party developer that now develops for all consoles.

Within a year, Nintendo and Microsoft released their own consoles: The Nintendo Gamecube (GCN) and the Microsoft Xbox. Both far outpowered the PS2 but Sony's amazing 3rd-party support from the previous generation carried over to the current one Some developers began to grow angry at Sony because the ease-of-development from the PSX did not carry over to the PS2. However, they generally accepted things and hoped that the PS3 would offer easier development. The Xbox faced several low-points mostly due to small things such as controller design and the size of the console. However, Microsoft ultimately got their act together and had some great titles on the Xbox such as Fable and the now legendary FPS, Halo. However, due to its size, the Xbox was rejected from the Japanese market. Nintendo, however, suffered a severe lack of 3rd-party support in an age when it was crucial. Many labeled the GCN as a 'kiddy console' due to its lack of violent 3rd-party games. Nintendo's lack of support furthered with poor decisions such as the use of a propriatary Mini-DVD format in favor of 12cm DVDs and its lack of online gaming support. Nintendo had officially gone from the dominant company to the 'kiddy' company. However, they weren't through yet...In fact they were far from it. Nintendo spent the GCN generation warming up to developers, gaining their trust back. They now have a much stronger bond with the 3rd-party developers than they did at the start of the GCN generation and this will likely carry over into the next generation when Nintendo intends to revolutionize the industry by releasing a console that they claim will take the market by storm and show the world something that will change gaming forever. A shroud of secrecy surrounds the Revolution but so far, everything that has been heard has been positive.

Once again, a new age is dawning and all three companies refuse to leave the industry. A new wave of consoles is rapidly approaching and the three companies are duking it out for hype and market-share. Sony seems to not be worried considering their enormous 80% market-share that they currently posess. Sony seeks to create a Media-Hub in favor of a gaming console this generation as does Microsoft. But Sony has made some crucial mistakes, some which they may fail to see. Could it be that Sony could fall from the gaming throne? Could the PS3 be Sony's last console? Could Sony fall at the hand of what their competitors fell to in the past? Perhaps. They have made many mistakes and now they will see the consequences.

Mistakes Beyond Repair and Lessons from the Past

Sony has made many mistakes, some less serious than others. One of the less serious errors in the PS3 is its design. While some may disagree, many think that the PS3's design is horrible and its controller's even worse. The machine is massive even when compared to the PS2 and the controller is awkward combining to form a console that strangely reminds me of the Xbox. Now, while the design of a console is a minor thing, it can alter the success of a console. Could Sony alienate itself from the Japanese market like Microsoft did with the Xbox? Will their sales fall for the same reason as Microsoft's did? Perhaps. The danger of creating such a large, bulky console increases when considering the alternatives: The Xbox360 and the Nintendo Revolution both offer smaller, sleeker consoles that many would prefer over the PS3. Regardless of whether or not this issue comes into play in the coming generation, the design of the system certainly will not help it.

Another issue that may hinder the console is the technology. Now, don't think that the PS3 is technologically inferior to the other consoles: It isn't. In fact, the situation is quite the opposite. The PS3 combines new Sony developed technology such as the Cell processor and the Blu-Ray disk that makes it technologically superior to the other systems. However, this may work against the system. The technology is not only very pricey and not developed exclusively for gaming, but both hardware components are in their infancy and are relatively untested. This will increase bugs and errors in games. Also, since the Cell was not developed for gaming but for general computing, it is very difficult to program for: A factor which Sony failed to consider. In addition, while the Blu-Ray disk offers up to 50GB of disk space, it is highly unlikely that any game will use that much room. The disk-format, therefore, is highly unnecessary and is merely there to introduce the format. This can be likened to the failure of the Sega-CD when Sega tried to use a format that was then highly uneconomical (The CD). Also, in using the Blu-Ray, Sony is taking a large gamble due to the format war that is ready to break out. Currently, Sony's Blu-Ray and Toshiba's HD-DVD (15-45 GB) are poised to fight to replace the DVD as the standard optical disk format. However even though it holds less memory, The HD-DVD is currently gaining more support largely due to issues such as price and ease of manufacturing. One is reminded of the format war between the VHS and Sony's BetaMax when Sony tried to create a powerful industry standard but was beaten out by a weaker format that was much cheaper to produce. Anyway, one final reason why these choices were foolish is because both technologies need to be newly manufactured...This will likely lead to a massive shortage of consoles during release.

The third reason why the PS3 will lead to the demise of Sony in the gaming industry is a major issue: Price. Despite what many companies like to think, people are not willing to spend $400 for a gaming console...And that is the low-end of what the system could potentially cost. The anticipated price for the PS3 ranges from $400-$800 making it the most expensive console since the Panasonic 3DO ($700). In addition, games for the PS3 are expected to range from $60-$80 in price. Controllers will likely cost around $30. So in order to buy a PS3, a game, and two controllers, you will need at least $490! The price is likely to be even more. Even Ken Kutaragi, Sony CEO said that 'you might want to get two jobs to pay for it'....And he's not kidding. The parts for the PS3 (Cell, Blu-Ray drive, etc) all cost a lot of money to manufacture. In fact, Sony is anticipating a total profit for the first year of -1 billion dollars! Oh, and don't bother waiting for the price to be lowered...It won't be. Kutaragi stated that the price will remain consistant throughout the PS3's life cycle. In addition, the system will be around $400 WITHOUT the hard-drive. That puppy will cost you another 150 smackers or so. Most of the world will agree that Sony's gargantuan prices are out of the common man's price range.

There is one final reason why the PS3 will fail and it is without a doubt the largest one. If you recall, the N64 failed due to its enormous development costs and the high skill-level needed to create a game for the system. You may also recall that SquareSoft, who has since merged with Enix to create Square-Enix, were the first to jump the boat and get onto the PSX bandwagon. Well apparently, Sony has not learned from the past and has made the same mistakes that Nintendo made back in 1996. The PS3 is a powerful machine, yes, but the power comes at a cost: The console is the most difficult to develop games for in history. In fact, EA predicts that to make a solid game for the PS3, it will likely take up to 500 people! Now obviously not every company will use this many staff members but than those companies may have longer development times. Sony has also grown arrogant and is now charging large fees for game development. They, like Nintendo once did, seem to think that it is a priviledge to develop for their console. It is this very attitude that lost Nintendo the market. Most developers do not like it when console-companies get overconfident and begin to build consoles at the expense of developers. When one looks at development for the PS3 as opposed to development for the Xbox360 or the Revolution (both of which are trying to greatly ease the development process), one must wonder if developers will stay with Sony or if they will leave for Microsoft and Nintendo. I personally think that Sony will be left with no developers. Once this happens, they will have no 3rd-parties left, meaning nearly no games...And unlike Nintendo, Sony does not have a strong 1st-party line-up: They will not be able to fall back on it like Nintendo did for the N64. One might say that such a thing won't occur, but it has already begun: Square-Enix is now reaching out to develop for all three consoles. They have also stated that they will likely stop developing for Sony after one or two more games. It is now only a matter of time before the developers leave Sony. Of course the PS3 will be well supported at launch. But eventually, developers will see that there is a greater profit to be made on the other consoles than on the PS3...And that is when Sony will be finished. Sure, after Sony profits from the success of the Cell chip and the Blu-Ray in other products, they will be in prime position to create a PS4. However, the market that they will have to sell to, that is the percent of the industry that will still be interested in Sony, will be too slim to make Sony any substantial profit. It could very well be that Sony will never make a PS4.

Conclusion

After reviewing the above information, one can conclude that Sony has witnessed first-hand what happens when a company makes crucial mistakes. They have seen what happens when a console is ahead of its time or when a system isn't developer-friendly. They have seen what occurs when a console is so bulky that it won't appeal to a mass audience. However, Sony has not taken notice of these factors. They have jumped headfirst into a combination of all of the mistakes of the past. They have become arrogant and short-sighted. The solid reign that Sony now has on the industry is about to collapse just as it did to Nintendo back in 1996. Sony has not learned from the mistakes of the past and now they will pay the price. The Playstation Generation has met its end... And if Sony wants to keep any amount of market-share at all, they will have to act fast and change their strategy. Unfortunately, it may already be too late in the game.

-Ninty Freak

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taken from http://www.dsupdate.net/2002/07/fall...eneration.html

Other than a few date errors and maybe one or two factual errors, I'd say it's a pretty well-written article. I'm currently neutral to the situation. I'm sure others will have better opinions.

[theONE]

i think that PS3 will be too expensive and that the rev wont so im probally gonna get that

The X360 and the Revo are on the top of my "to get" list. The PS3, not so much. There goes my neutral stance. >_>

[ShadowMarth]

I think we won't have to worry about japan... Judging from the response of the japanese on the DS and xbox, they will sell none of the 360, and tons of the rev and PS3.

[Neumie]

i honestly cant see sony loosing out yet. Sonys marketing is legendary. people still pay more for a PS2 than an xbox. I think they diserve a nasty smack for the reasons stated in the article and i would like to see microsoft have top spot with nintendo closely behind. Nintendo still seem a bit too complacement for my likely but they are getting better. Microsoft still have something to prove to gamers and developers and i see them doing amazing things with the 360 years from now. I'm getting a 360 for one reason at the moment, Elder scrolls 4 oblivion, but im sure there will be many games in the future that ill enjoy. Microsoft develop and publish some fantastic games. Thats my 2 cents anyway

[bignds]

i really like the article.
i then disscussed this but the answer i got and something that did make sense- sony are mega rich, they will pay developers sh!t loads to develop for them. they will pay as much as needed for them to develop games for them. and after all developers are out for money, if sony can pay what the developers require then they may retain their crown.

[ShadowMarth]

No matter how expensive the PS3, people will buy it. There's no way to stop them.

[kratos]

BECAUSE MOST OF THEM DONT KNOW GOOD GAMES CONSOLE IF IT HIT THEM IN THE FACE here in the uk the population of chavs is unbelievable so then they all buy the same console You Add it Up

[alex]

tell me about it.