2012

[Pilot_51]

Ok, I just heard about this last night on the radio (which I almost never listen to), so I'm a bit shocked about the whole thing. This is some serious stuff and chances are it will affect everyone here in one way or another. Different religions as well as anti-religious people would have different views on what this means, but what I want to say is simply the facts as I understand it, no religious preaching from me (but I may state my beliefs in later posts).

So, here's the deal:

• A massive solar storm which has apparently already started is expected to reach its max between 2010 and 2012

• Earth's magnetic poles could switch, which as I understand could temporarily leave the atmosphere and everything else on Earth vulnerable to the energized solar radiation

• The Mayan calender ends on December 21st, 2012, which I've heard is also the Mayan apocalypse
• There are a number of massive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions waiting to happen, namely Yellowstone, California, I think Seattle, and I'm sure several others I haven't heard of; they might be waiting for something big to trigger them
• A solar storm and earthquakes fit the descriptions of religious apocalyptic prophecies

This could mean a number of things, a lot of them pointing to some form of an apocalypse (religious or not) or the end of civilization as we know it. There's a chance that this could just blow over like the solar storm of 1958, but I have a hunch it won't. At the least our electronics would be affected and we would see the auroras probably as far as it was in 1958 (Mexico) or farther.

Here's some sources:
Recap of the radio show I heard it from: COAST TO COAST AM WITH GEORGE NOORY: SHOWS
NASA - Solar Storm Warning
Digg - Massive solar storm coming in 2012
Stronger Solar Storms Predicted; Blackouts May Result
ARRLWeb: Next Solar Cycle to be Later but More Intense, New Research Suggests
7 reasons the world will end in 2012

What do you think about all this? Let's try to keep this to intelligent discussions rather than debate, I mean this is possibly the end of the world as we know it.

[RealPanda]

Hmm... I'm not sure what to think about this... But don't the magnetic poles change every so often anyway? I forgot when but I remember being told about how birds get confused and stuff... I think it's every few thousand years (every so often for a panda). I think that has something to do with the convection currents under the earths crust.

[ShadowMarth]

Panda's dead on about the magnetic poles switching, and the cause. It's happened many times before in the history of the planet, and life continued. So nothing to worry about there.

Second, the Mayan calendar is hilarious bull****. Seriously. The Mayans predicted a lot of things, and very few have come true. You know how many people predicted "The End" at the turn of the millenium? And what happened? It's just a calendar. Besides, this was a staple of their religion. A religion no one in the world follows anymore. A religion you yourself do not believe in. So why do you give some civilization with only a basic understanding of the movement of stars credence in their prediction of the apocalypse in 2012?

Just for fun, a quote from your bottom link:

Given that they were pretty close to the mark with the lunar cycle, it's likely they've got the end of the world right as well.

*cough*

Upon further examination of that bottom link, the second poster pretty well thrashed every last point about as well can be done. Read his statements before you post any response, as you might miss a detail, since you obviously missed the entire post.

Also, from your linked Digg article:

That was a solar maximum. The Space Age was just beginning: Sputnik was launched in Oct. 1957 and Explorer 1 (the first US satellite) in Jan. 1958. In 1958 you couldn't tell that a solar storm was underway by looking at the bars on your cell phone; cell phones didn't exist. Even so, people knew something big was happening when Northern Lights were sighted three times in Mexico. A similar maximum now would be noticed by its effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites and many other modern technologies.

That was in fact a WORSE solar storm than is anticipated in 2012. And that was during a time of great exploration, the beginning of the space race, advancing electronics... And here we are, continuing to advance, having weathered the storm without noticing it. I believe the phrase is "RTFA".

As for volcanoes and Earthquakes... Yeah? Those are and have always been ticking time bombs. Tension builds along fault lines, and eventually it releases. Predicting that earthquakes will occur and volcanoes will blow is like predicting that eventually it will rain in the UK. It might not happen today, might not happen tomorrow, but it will happen. Always has happened, always will, world continues.

This all reminds me of my youth pastors back when I was younger. Back in the time of El Nino. They said that it would cause massive hurricanes, tornadoes, ect (which it did, to some extent), and that these weather anomalies were a sure sign of the coming of the lord. And once again, here we are, years later.

You want to see an accurate apocalyptic prediction? Check out #3.

Originally Posted by Sir Isaac Newton (1643-1727)

About the time of the end, a body of men will be raised up who will turn their attention to the prophecies, and insist upon their literal interpretation, in the midst of much clamour and opposition.

[Lite_Noxus]

Well, I'm not too lazy, rather too tired. Is any of this affiliated with Global Warming?

[Lkr]

Originally Posted by Lite_Noxus

Well, I'm not too lazy, rather too tired. Is any of this affiliated with Global Warming?

no you tard. global warming isn't real.

also, you've just heard about this? something else to consider, mayan calendar is off about 10 years

[Pilot_51]

Ok, let's look at it this way.
The millennium prediction was complete bull, there's no way a computer bug would end the world and the idea was too mainstream and didn't have much if any religious or even scientific ground. I doubt many strongly religious people believed it either. I never believed it for a moment and the other predictions I didn't even know about until recently.

One question I have: Have there been any apocalyptic predictions in the past that were supported by both the scientists and several religions? I can't think of any, but that's probably just because I haven't studied the history of cataclysmic predictions.

I'm not saying I believe the Mayan religion, but just because I don't believe it doesn't mean I don't think they did some things right. They apparently understood astronomy with extreme accuracy, which is saying a lot for people who didn't have computers. The end of their calendar (which begins with what they believe to be the creation of Earth) falling on a year when scientists are saying this possibly cataclysmic event is supposed to happen, seems to tell me something is up and this is no ordinary bullcrap prediction.

I don't want a debate on the legitimacy of religious predictions since I really don't think anyone here can prove or disprove future predictions. So maybe a scientific discussion of the matter would be better since true science is based much more on known fact and isn't so easy to fall into debate over.
Is it possible that a solar storm could be strong enough to break through the protective magnetic field of Earth, perhaps when the polarity of the poles is going through one of its regular swaps?
Is it possible that the pressure of the deformed magnetic field could cause an imbalance within Earth to trigger earthquakes and volcanoes?

One thing that can't be denied is that we could die at any moment when we least expect it. The thought that death could be only 4 years away has made me uneasy, but has also helped me realize life isn't definite and there is no promise that I'd be alive tomorrow. Whether this thing happens or not, I believe the thought of it is helping me cope with the eventual death that we will all need to face.

[RealPanda]

Originally Posted by Pilot_51

One question I have: Have there been any apocalyptic predictions in the past that were supported by both the scientists and several religions?

I'm about to nip off so i'll have to read the rest of this post later. But there is another religion that belives that the apocalypse will be in 2011 aswell. I can't remember what other religion it was. The friend that was talking about it left london a few months ago.

Anyway, the reffs are interested as they claim that this will be the biggest solar strom in 50 years, but then also say that it will be 30% to I think 50% bigger? So what does this actually mean? It looks like there is going to be a small yet powerful storm... Does it effect (or affect? :S) the whole planet? I don't know. But it looks to my like they cocked it up. Anyway, I have some other things to say, some to the contrary of what was previously stated but I don't have the time right now.

Bye :)

[ShadowMarth]

Originally Posted by Pilot_51

The millennium prediction was complete bull, there's no way a computer bug would end the world and the idea was too mainstream and didn't have much if any religious or even scientific ground. I doubt many strongly religious people believed it either. I never believed it for a moment and the other predictions I didn't even know about until recently.

I didn't say anything about the Y2K bug. Plenty of people believed that the world would end because of some arbitrary calendar date. And apparently so do you. As for this bit:

I doubt many strongly religious people believed it either.

In 1999-OCT, the Pew Research Center released a study called "Americans look to the 21st century." They confirmed the Princeton poll, finding

• 44% believed that Jesus will probably return during their lifetime.

• 22% said that Jesus will definitely return before 2050 CE.

• 44% believed that Jesus will probably not return during their lifetime.

As for your second paragraph... OF COURSE! It just depends how high your standards are for "scientists". Those Mayan astronomers? Crazy advanced for their day. Still dumb as ****.

Astronomy isn't hard. It's not that complicated. It just required some basic geometry and a willingness to change your perception of the universe. As for the "cataclysmic event"... Which one? You mentioned a number of them, and I am fairly certain I stated clearly that each one, for any number of reasons, was full of it.

I think it's pretty safe to conclude that the effects of solar radiation on tectonic activity is pretty minimal. Tectonic activity would keep ticking regardless, even if we all die and the Earth becomes a barren wasteland. Also, if we became completely exposed to every bit of cosmic radiation heading for us, yes, we'd be dead, and it wouldn't much matter what cycle the sun is going through. Once again, however, it's pretty easy to see that the geomagnetic reversal is not going to cause mass extinctions, because once more, we exist.

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

Some speculate that a greatly diminished magnetic field during a reversal period will expose the surface of the earth to a substantial and potentially damaging increase in cosmic radiation. However, Homo erectus and their ancestors certainly survived many previous reversals. There is no uncontested evidence that a magnetic field reversal has ever caused any biological extinctions. A possible explanation is that the solar wind may induce a sufficient magnetic field in the Earth's ionosphere to shield energetic particles even in the absence of the Earth's normal magnetic field.

Humanity has been evolving for thousands and thousands of years, and there hasn't been a major extinction event for 65 million years, despite the poles having likely switched hundreds of times since.

As for dying at any given moment... Yeah. It doesn't take an apocalypse to know that though. Any one of us can die for no good reason at the drop of a hat. You don't need to assign some arbitrary end-of-the-world date to enjoy life. Hell, growing up in the post cold-war area, with all the paranoia of nuclear obliteration coming at any time, how could you not have faced and dealt with this issue by the time you were 10?

Information
Earth's magnetic field - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Geomagnetic reversal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Brunhes-Matuyama reversal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Extinction event - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

More realistic threats, if you feel like obsessing about it.
Doomsday argument - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Pilot_51]

Originally Posted by ShadowMarth

Have you thought that maybe the 44% were the same people? "Probably" is a key word that doesn't mean they believe it actually will happen, but that it's a possibility. So, what that poll tells me is that 44% of the people polled believe in the second coming of Jesus and 22% have probably seen how just about every other prediction in the Bible has come true and are assuming it can't be far, or maybe they just thought it would be in 2000 and never really thought about the fine details, but it depends how the poll was carried out and of course the type of people polled. I don't assume it, I just say it could be any time and I look at potential predictable times as I'm doing with this thread. 2012 has the most compelling evidence I've ever seen, which is why I'm making such a big deal about it, but I'm not saying one way or another if I believe it really will happen.

Originally Posted by ShadowMarth

As for your second paragraph... OF COURSE! It just depends how high your standards are for "scientists". Those Mayan astronomers? Crazy advanced for their day. Still dumb as ****.

I mean non-religious or anti-religious scientists.

Originally Posted by ShadowMarth

Humanity has been evolving for thousands and thousands of years, and there hasn't been a major extinction event for 65 million years.

Evolution or the idea of the Earth being around for millions of years is just a theory, it's not proven. I sort of look at it as an anti-religious religion created by anti-Creation scientists. Sure, there may be evidence to support it, but there is also evidence supporting religion too, without that balance the whole Evolution vs. Creation debate would've been concluded long ago. So, can we make an agreement that if I don't push my unproven beliefs on people as fact, you don't push yours on me as fact?

Originally Posted by ShadowMarth

As for dying at any given moment... Yeah. It doesn't take an apocalypse to know that though. Any one of us can die for no good reason at the drop of a hat. You don't need to assign some arbitrary end-of-the-world date to enjoy life. Hell, growing up in the post cold-war area, with all the paranoia of nuclear obliteration coming at any time, how could you not have faced and dealt with this issue by the time you were 10?

Let me more clear on what I meant. Of course I've always known I could die at any moment, but it's something that a large majority of people find hard to accept. They usually expect to grow up and have a family and die old, essentially denying the possibility of dying young. I'm hoping this whole thing passes over and I actually get to live a full life without such chaos, but I figured I might as well get my self mentally prepared for death so it's not such a scary thought.
Apparently I lived in a household that didn't really worry about nuclear obliteration. The Cold War ended when I was 5 and I don't even remember experiencing any news coverage or talk among the family or friends about it or anything of that matter. I had a relatively happy and unparanoid early life. Maybe it's because I didn't live very close to any likely targets such as a city.

[ShadowMarth]

Scientists theorize. They adjust their theories using observable evidence. They admit when they are wrong, because otherwise our understanding of the universe will not progress. Religion does pretty much step one, then ignores the rest.

I won't bother responding to your religious points except in telling you my own viewpoint. I am an agnostic. That means that I don't necessarily believe a god does not exist, it means I believe that even if there is, there is absolutely no way to ever prove (or disprove) it in the slightest. As such, I gave up on religion a long time ago. To summarize: if God does exist, I don't care, because the fact that Agnosticism can exist suggests that he would not be any more a perfect being than we are.

Now, as for evolution, I'm going to put this simply: It exists, it works, it's proven as much as any theory can be without being mathematics, it's observable, and saying otherwise is downright silly. I didn't intend to get into the evolution debate, but I knew you'd take issue with my use of the word. Wait, you're not a YEC are you?