Why the PS3 Will be a Flop

[nmaster64]

Here's a little lesson for everybody:

Shortage's can be an amazing marketing tool, especially for big hyped products like game consoles. What happens is that people rush to get one, including people who otherwise may have waited, fearing they'll never get one, and that in conjunction with low stock equals first day sellout.

This can then be spun to the press as a resounding "success". They build the hype and that item becomes the "hot thing". This whole phenomenom occured last year with the Xbox 360.

However, a shortage is only positive in the long run if you can resupply sales quick enough. Microsoft last year had trouble doing this in time for the holiday, and it did indeed hurt them in the long run. By the time shelves were restocked, not so many people cared anymore.

Thus, Sony can only be doing one of two things: A) playing everyone for fools and stockpiling consoles for release a little before Christmas, or B) they really just aren't ready for launch and don't have enough units.

It doesn't take Phoenix Wright to deduce that based on the delay of Europe and the ridicuously low number of consoles in the other regions, that the latter is most likely the case. Thusly so, Sony will sell out of PS3's by Christmas, probably about 1 million of them, but lose many customers due to the shortage.

Look here: the Wii launches first, and takes an initial lead. Word of mouth and people getting their hands on it is going to create a flood of converts to the Wii. The PS3 launches, and sells out, duh. Those who couldn't get their hands on a PS3, whether for themselves or someone else for Christmas, turn to the Wii instead. Sony restocks, probably sells out by the end of the month, but in the long term has lost a HUGE market share to Nintendo. Let's not forget that with Gears of War launching, the 360 will be getting it's share of converts as well. Either way, Sony's screwed.

Edit: Ok, guess that only works for Europe, with that whole launching AFTER the PS3 strategy I didn't expect. Still, it works out the same. People are going to go looking for a PS3, not be able to get one, and a couple days later an interesting other option hits the shelves for a hell of a lot cheaper. Wii wins regardless of launch day (still wish it was sooner though).

The PS3's PAL launch will go up against Nintendo and Microsoft's biggest hitters: Halo 3 and Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I don't think Sony's packing near enough heat to take that at all. For the next year AT LEAST, they'll be in last, although I think they may stay there for a long, long while.

[ShadowMarth]

C) They really do have enough units, they're just holding out a couple weeks to hype. However that is unlikely considering the PAL release date.

[nmaster64]

Originally Posted by ShadowMarth

C) They really do have enough units, they're just holding out a couple weeks to hype. However that is unlikely considering the PAL release date.

Ummmm...I just said that...that was A)...and your 2nd sentence was my next paragraph...

The problem for Sony is obviously restocking the shelves in time. If there's a trickle of systems well into January, they've just butt-****d themselves. High price tag and very limited availability really turn off the impulse buyers.

[Pilot_51]

Do you have a comparison of the launch units for the 360 and DS? I'm having trouble right now determining what's really a low number. Even though Nintendo sells out of almost everything they release these days, they also ship massive stocks compared to the others and the overall sales skyrocket quickly, so it's really doubtful they could possibly be attempting such a risky move with false information.

[nmaster64]

The GameCube sold over 700,000 in it's first week, the PS2 was about 500,000, and the original Xbox was over 300,000.

If I recall the Xbox 360 got around 600,00 in it's first week, and moved to 1 mil by the end of the year. The PS3 will supposedly be releasing right over 1 million units by the end of the year total...

I don't know about the DS's launch, but I know it sells around 100,000 on a weekly basis in Japan alone these days...so...I'm sure it sold at least a half million in it's first week...

[ShadowMarth]

Check it out. A certain Kutaragi looks to be getting worried.

http://www.betanews.com/article/Kuta...ine/1157731126

[lemmywinks]

While I love the fact that nintendo is finally on the up, I can't help but feel a slight twinge of sympathy for sony...

...

...is something wrong with me!?

[nmaster64]

Originally Posted by lemmywinks

While I love the fact that nintendo is finally on the up, I can't help but feel a slight twinge of sympathy for sony...

...is something wrong with me!?

Very. They deserve no sympathy. They could have easily just release a slightly more powerful PS2 and would have won. They've completely dug their own grave.